Tsunami Propagation in the Gulf of Thailand

บทคัดย่อ

The earthquake off the west coast of Thailand on December 26, 2004 and the subsequent tsunami disaster has focused research interests among scientists. The research is not solely focused on the west coast of Thailand, but also the east coast. The reason for the research is that the Thailand’s east coast is adjacent to China Sea, a part of the Pacific Ocean where earthquakes and volcanic eruptions are frequent. In addition, coastal elevation on the Thailand’s east coast is generally low, thus making it extremely vulnerable to wave inundation with a height of a few meters. The Manila Trench is an excellent candidate to assess the risk of tsunami impact to the east coast of Thailand due to its close proximity. This study creates a hypothetical earthquake tsunami scenario caused by sudden movement of seafloor at the Manila Trench. Tsunami travel time will be strictly observed because it is the most critical information for tsunami warning. The time will be determined by numerically solving the shallow - water equation. The study reveals that tsunami reaches the southern part of Thailand 11.42 hours and reaches Bangkok 17.73 hours after an earthquake. The probability of tsunami generated by the Manila Trench is unlikely to result in loss of human life along Thailand’s east coast due to the long travel time of the tsunami wave. The slower wave speed in the Gulf of Thailand allows time to evacuate people away from the coastal zone.