Forecasting of PP J704WE Raw Materials Demand for Thermos Bottle Production: A Case Study of Union Zojirushi Co., Ltd.
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Abstract
This research has the main purpose to study the suitable method for raw material forecasting in order to support the decision making on raw material purchasing for the production process in the case study of Union Zojirushi Co., Ltd. a thermos bottle manufacturer. The researcher has chosen PP J704WE as the raw material. This is because the raw material is used for 31.15%, which is the most used raw material in the production, but its mean absolute percentage error is also as high as 25.91%. Hence, it is crucial to be sufficiently in stock for usage in the production and to keep the production continuing without any interruption. The researcher has chosen the following forecasting methods: 1) Three-month weighted moving average 2) Decomposition method and
3) Holt-Winters' multiplicative exponential smoothing method. The forecasting accuracy is evaluated using the mean absolute percentage error. It is found from the study result that the most suitable forecasting of PP J704WE raw material usage is with the decomposition method. It is found from the forecasting that the mean absolute percentage error is 14.43%.
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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
Articles published in Journal of Industrial Technology Ubon Ratchathani Rajabhat University both hard copy and electronically are belonged to the Journal.
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