Risk Assessment Approach to Climate Change Adaptation by Statistical Downscaling of Daily Rainfall for Quantitative and Distribution Changing in Rainy Season Forecasts during 10-Periods
Article Sidebar
Main Article Content
Abstract
In order to utilize from monthly rainfall data of Meteorological Department of Thailand and Ubon Ratchathani Meteorological Department during 30 years since May 1981 to October 2010 in rainy season only. The purpose of this research was to forecasting by time series ARIMA model for the rainfall in Northeastern Region of Rainy Season during 10 period predicts. The data are split into two sets, the first from May 1981 until October 2010 for the modeling and the last from May 2011 until October 2016 for finding forecasting by the model by the criterion of lower mean absolute error. The results show that the most average monthly rainfall was Ubon Ratchathani Province and the average monthly rainfall in Northeastern Region is about 114.1 to 282.3 millimeters.
Article Details
Articles published in Journal of Industrial Technology Ubon Ratchathani Rajabhat University both hard copy and electronically are belonged to the Journal.
References
Meteorological Department of Thailand. climate [Internet]. 2017 [cited 2017 July 6]. Available from: http://www.ubonmet.tmd.go.th/index.php/metinfo (in Thai)
Thanaraksakul W. Statisticaling Model for Evaluating Climate Change Impacts on Temperature in Chi and Mun River Basin [thesis]. Pathum Thani: Thammasat University; 2008. (in Thai)
Xu, C-Y. From GCMs to river flow: a review of downscaling methods and hydrologic modeling approaches, Progress in Physical Geography. 1999; 23(2): 229-249.
Meteorological Department of Thailand. Rain delay [Internet]. 2017 [cited 2017 July 6]. Available from: https://www.tmd.go.th/services/services.php (in Thai)
Siriluk Suwanwong. Quantitative Forecasting Techniques: Time Series. Bangkok; Mahidol University; 2013. (in Thai)
Sukawat D, Yavinchan S, Sithichivapak K. Impact of Global Warming on the Southeast Asia Monsoon: Cold Surge and Summer Break [Report]. Bangkok: Thailand Research Fund; 2015.
(in Thai)