FORECASTING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS FROM ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION FOR SOLAR PV INSTALLATION PLANNING TO MEET THAILAND’S EMISSIONS REDUCTION TARGETS: A CASE STUDY OF MAE MOH SUBDISTRICT MUNICIPALITY, MAE MOH DISTRICT, LAMPANG PROVINCE

Abstract

The objectives of this research were to 1) forecast greenhouse gas emissions from electricity consumption in the Mae Moh Subdistrict Municipality, Mae Moh Subdistrict Lampang Province, and 2) develop a solar photovoltaic (PV) installation plan to reduce emissions by 25 percent, with target year of 2030. A quantitative research approach was used. Data on electricity use and associated greenhouse gas emissions from 2018 to 2023 were collected and calculated. These data were analyzed using the Decomposition Method with a Seasonal Index to forecast emissions for 2024–2030. The required emission-reduction target was determined, and the necessary PV system size was estimated based on prior studies indicating that a 1 kW solar PV system can generate 3.41 kWh of electricity per day. An assessment of available municipal land was conducted to evaluate installation feasibility. Results show that the Mae Moh Subdistrict Municipality emitted an average of 115,234.16 kgCO₂ eq per year from electricity consumption during 2018–2023. Forecasts indicate that emissions will average 133,222.55 kgCO₂ eq per year between 2024 and 2030, representing an annual increase of 17,988.39 kgCO₂ eq relative to current levels. To achieve the 25 percent reduction target by 2030, the municipality must reduce emissions by 46,796.93 kgCO₂ eq per year. This requires generating 91,525.39 kWh of electricity annually, or approximately 250.75 kWh per day, through a solar PV system. Based on these calculations, a 73.46 kW solar PV system is recommended for installation on available open land within the municipality to support national emission reduction goals. The findings suggest that the installation of a solar PV system is both feasible and aligned with Thailand’s strategic direction for renewable energy under the Thailand 4.0 policy and serves as a crucial strategic guideline for policy decision-making, such as efficient resource management. Integrating the study’s results into the municipality’s environmental and energy strategic plans can help ensure the long-term sustainability of renewable energy initiatives. Additionally, expanding this research model to nearby local administrative units may enhance the overall effectiveness of greenhouse gas reduction efforts at the national level.