ASSESSING DROUGHT-PRONE AREAS IN NON-IRRIGATED AREAS USING WATER ACCOUNTING AND THE WEAP MODEL
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The objectives of this study were to develop an annual water accounting framework and analyze drought-prone areas using the WEAP model under five different scenarios at the sub-district level for the Lam Chiang Krai River Basin. The study focused on the non-irrigated Lam Chiang Krai River Basin, Thailand, with analysis conducted at the sub-district level. Key research instruments included a Water Accounting Framework and the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model. Secondary data encompassing meteorological, hydrological, land use, crop calendar, and population figures were collected from relevant government agencies. Data analysis involved calculating water demands (agricultural using FAO Penman-Monteith, domestic, and environmental) and utilizing the WEAP model, integrated with water accounting principles, to simulate monthly water balance under five off-season rice cultivation scenarios. This identified drought-prone areas and assessed water shortage magnitudes, with model performance validated (R² = 0.74-0.88). Results revealed that expanding off-season rice cultivation significantly increased agricultural water demand by up to 30.63% compared to only wet-season cultivation. Crucially, under the 100% off-season rice scenario, total water demand surpassed effective rainfall, eliminating water outflow from the basin. While overall annual rainfall appeared sufficient, localized water scarcity emerged due to intensive agricultural water utilization patterns, particularly during the dry season months. The study confirmed the effectiveness of the integrated WEAP-water accounting approach for detailed drought vulnerability assessment in data-scarce, non-irrigated regions. Findings offered spatially and temporally explicit insights into water stress levels, directly informing local stakeholder decisions. This information was vital for developing targeted sub-district water management plans, optimizing existing resource allocation, and guiding the strategic placement and design of essential small-scale water infrastructure. The research strongly emphasized the critical need for carefully managing off-season rice cultivation to ensure sustainable water availability and enhance drought resilience within the Lam Chiang Krai River Basin.
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