Life Cycle Energy Assessment in the Electricity Generation Sector of Thailand

Abstract

 This research aims to study the relationship of causal factors affecting energy consumption throughout the life cycle in Thailand’s electricity production sector in the future, in line with the country’s development goal toward sustainability. A Long Structural Equation Modeling based on the Latent Growth Model (LSEM-LG model) was developed as a key tool to be applied in managing the country efficiently toward the net zero emission goal by the year 2065. The research findings revealed that from the past (1992–2024), there has been continuous and significant growth in the economic and social sectors. However, this growth has simultaneously caused ongoing environmental degradation. The study found that CO2 emissions resulting from energy use in the electricity sector have increased beyond the acceptable threshold (set not to exceed 65.05 Mt CO2 Eq. for 2024–2034). The projected growth rate between 2025 and 2034 is 31.52%, resulting in CO2 emissions reaching 75.79 Mt CO2 Eq. As a result, the study proposes a new policy scenario: increasing the use of biodiesel and gasohol fuels can help reduce the growth rate of CO2 emissions to only 52.31 Mt CO2 Eq. (2025– 2034). This demonstrates that the model developed in this study is suitable for application in national decision-making to drive the country toward a green industrial future.