ผลของฤดูกาลเกิดโรคที่มีต่อตัวแบบเชิงคณิตศาสตร์ การแพร่ระบาดของโรคติดเชื้อไวรัส RSV

บทคัดย่อ

The objective of this research is to develop and analyze a mathematical model of the RSV epidemic with the effect of seasonal epidemics.  The model was divided into 4 compartments including susceptible, exposed , infected  and recovered . The results show that the model has two equilibrium points: disease-free equilibrium point and endemic equilibrium point. The study found that the basic reproductive number , is a condition for disease control. The model analysis reveals that the disease-free equilibrium point is locally asymptotically stable when . Conversely, the endemic equilibrium point is locally asymptotically stable when . The numerical results lead to conclude that seasonal epidemics affect the spread of RSV. Therefore, seasonal epidemics are essential to control the spread of RSV virus.