Forecasting of Electricity Consumption for Residential Houses Monthly Case Study: Muang District, Nakhon Ratchasima Province
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Abstract
The purpose of this research is to study and compare forecasting methods for forecasting monthly electricity consumption of residential houses at Muang District, Nakhon Ratchasima. Data during January 2013 to June 2020 from Nakhon Ratchasima Provincial Statistical Office was collected with the amount of 90 values. The researcher divided the data into 2 sets. The first data set from January 2013 to June 2019 of 78 values was used to prepare three forecast models, i.e. the ARIMA model, the Multiplicative Winter model, and the Decomposition model. The second data set from July 2019 to June 2020 of 12 value was used to compare and verify the accuracy to select the most suitable criteria to compare and forecast errors of each model which are Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). The results of the study showed that the Multiplicative Winter model is suitable for forecasting residential household electricity consumption. The highest electricity consumption was in May 2021 of 30,990,834.92. KW / hour while the lowest electricity consumption was in February, 2021 of 19,452,248.85. KW/hour.
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