Comparison of Forecasting Techniques between Holt-Winters Method with Different Initial Values and Bagging Holt-Winters Method, Case Study: Total Airport Passengers of Phuket International Airport and Mae Fah Luang Chiang Rai International Airport
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Abstract
The objective of this research is to compare forecasting techniques between the Holt-Winters method with different initial values and the Bagging Holt-Winters method based on the monthly number of passengers (January 2003 to December 2019) using Phuket International Airport, which has a linear trend and seasonal variation, and that of Mae Fah Luang Chiang Rai International Airport which has a non-linear trend and seasonal variation. The data collected by the Airport of Thailand Public Company Limited were divided into 2 sets. The first data set, (January 2003 to December 2018) was used to construct the models and the minimum Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) was employed for model selection. The second set (January 2019 to December 2019) was used to compute the accuracy of forecasting models by using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The results show that the Bagging Holt-Winters method is the more appropriate method for forecasting total passengers of both airports whereas the MAPE are 4.32% and 5.58% respectively. In addition, the Bagging Holt-Winters method can increase forecasting efficiency in both linear and non-linear trends when compared with the Holt-Winters method with different initial values.
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