A Study of Water Transport Demand Forecast: A case of Chao Phraya River
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Abstract
The present study aimed to investigate the level of demand in using ferry transportation on Chao Phraya River. Due to the enhanced transportation development in connecting Chao Phraya Pier and future rail transportation, the study examined a set of transportation data that could connect the ferry transport route and transportation development plan to analyze and forecast its level of demand. The study employed the 4-step model from Extended Bangkok Urban Model: eBUM to analyze the level of demand in the future. Nowadays, Chao Phraya Pier has a variety of transport route connections such as sky trains, metros, public transportation, taxi, motorcycle taxi, Tuk Tuk and ferries. In addition to that, rail transportation will be developed in Bangkok and Perimeter. The findings were categorized based on two following instances: 1) Without rail transportation development, the average level of demand for water transportation increases by 1.08% per year compared to the base year (2019). 2) With rail transportation development, the number of passengers increased by approximately 2.03% per year compared to the base year (2019).
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