Prediction of Future Surface Temperature at Local Scale in Chiang Mai Province under Climate Change Scenarios
Main Article Content
Abstract
The climate change problem results in several changes including the temperature. There have been many studies on the future climate forecast but only providing the future surface temperature of countrywide area or at the regional scale. In fact, the surface temperature of a local area might be lower or higher than that. This raises the question on how the future surface temperature at local scale can be predicted. This study applies the available data on Thailand’s existing climate change forecast using an existing world climate model ECHAM4 together with the remote sensing to predict the future surface temperature at the local scale. The 3 districts in Chiang Mai, i.e. Muang Chiang Mai, San Sai, and Doi Saket were used as a pilot study for this research. The results provided the annual maximum surface temperature during 2560BE and 2592BE of 30×30 meter grid spacing. The 3 sets of local temperature include ECHAM4 A2, ECHAM4 B2, and ECHAM5 A1B projects with different conditions and sources of projecting. In addition, there is a significant difference the temperature among each local data and in each year around 20 deg Celsius. Therefore, it can be seen that only the local temperature forecast is very important for planning on specific areas, e.g. annual cropping, cattle, etc. rather than using the average temperature of large provincial area. It was also found that the future climate change of the 3 districts tends to be higher. Moreover, the future local surface temperature from the ECHAM5 A1B project tends to be higher than those of ECHAM4 A2 and ECHAM4 B2. As a consequence, it is important to choose the suitable model of climate change scenarios in order to find the best guideline to solve the problem on the climate change in certain local area.
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