FLUS Model Validation and Soil Utilization Forecast in Chiang Mai City and Surrounding Area
Land use represents the relationship of physical, social, political and technological factors. The objectives of this study are: 1) to study the land use change of the of Land Development Department in 2006, 2009 and 2015, in Amphoe Mueang Chiang Mai and surrounding areas, 2) to validate the FLUS Model and 3) to predict the land use change in 2024. The relationship of factors and land use by using Artificial Neuron Network (ANN) and the future scenario from Markov Model were applied to predict the land use change. The research results from land use change of Land Development Department in 2006 – 2009 revealed that agriculture area was decreased 34,453 rai, forest area was decreased 748 rai, miscellaneous area was increased 1,830 rai, built-up area was increased 29,922 rai and water bodies area was increased 3,449 rai. In addition, agriculture area was decreased 6,356 rai, forest area was decreased 2,460 rai, miscellaneous was decreased 5,648 rai, built-up area was increased 13,210 rai and water bodies was increased 1,254 rai in 2009-2015. According to land use change during 2006 – 2015, agriculture area was decreased 40,809 rai, forest area was decreased 3,208 rai, miscellaneous area was decreased 3,818 rai, built-up area was increased 43,132 rai and water bodies area was increased 4,703 rai. The land use change prediction in 2015 - 2024 illustrated that agriculture area was decreased 19,521 rai, forest area was decreased 6,268 rai, miscellaneous area was decrease 7,386 rai, built-up area was increased 35,013 rai and water bodies area was decreased 1,838 rai. The database can be implemented to land use management planning for Amphoe Mueang Chiang Mai and surrounding areas.
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