Application of the HEC-HMS model for analysing land use change and hydrological responses across different return periods in tropical flood-prone areas
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Abstract
Land use change is a significant environmental concern worldwide today, as it has the potential to increase the frequency of natural disasters, such as floods. The Sg. Segamat Watershed, which is particularly vulnerable to flooding, highlights the importance of hydrological modelling as a crucial tool in disaster mitigation. In this study, the Hydrologic Engineering Center’s Hydrologic Modelling System (HEC-HMS) was utilised to assess the effects of land use change on hydrological responses across various return periods. The analysis examined both the pre- and post-calibration phases under varying land use conditions. Land use data from 2006 and 2011 were used to simulate future scenarios. The findings showed that the expansion of built-up areas and the conversion of forested land to mixed agriculture had a significant influence on flood patterns. Specifically, built-up areas expanded by 2.24%, resulting in increased flood volumes in sub-basins 4, 9, and 12 between 2006 and 2026. Concurrently, forest cover declined by approximately 4.40%, which led to heightened flood peak heights in sub-basins 1, 3, and 11 under all land use conditions. Sub-basin 3 recorded the highest flood peak height, estimated at 1,150.20 m³/s in the pre-calibration phase, 1,165.80 m³/s in the post-calibration, and 1,036.20 m³/s using the initial CN with calibrated parameters. Meanwhile, sub-basin 4 demonstrated the highest flood volume, with estimates reaching 342.10 mm pre-calibration, 366.09 mm post-calibration, and 341.04 mm using initial CN with calibrated parameters. These results clearly demonstrate how land use changes influence hydrological behaviour, emphasising the need for watershed planning and flood risk management. The study highlights the value of hydrological modelling as a tool for enhancing flood mitigation strategies and provides crucial insights for policymakers, planners, government agencies, and local communities.
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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
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