Assessment of hydrologic variations under climate change scenarios using fully-distributed hydrological model in Huai Luang Watershed, Thailand
Article Sidebar
Main Article Content
Abstract
Huai Luang Watershed is mostly covered by agriculture area and the most population work on farm. The water is an essential factor to support communities in the watershed. Recently in Huai Luang watershed has faced serious problems on water resources such as drought and flood event. Water is a medium that is very vulnerable to the impact of climate changes. Therefore, the objective of the research was to evaluate the effect of climate changes on hydrologic variation in Huai Luang Watershed. This research utilized MIKE SHE for fully distributed hydrological model and coupled with MIKE 11 to model water cycle in watershed. This study used observed streamflow data from Kh.103 station for calibration and validation model. The models were calibrated from the period of 1 January 2004 to 31 December 2006 and validated 1 January 2011 to 31 December 2013. The calibration and validation results indicated agreement between observed and simulated data. The R2, NSE, PBIAS, and RSR values of calibration of daily streamflow were 0.60, 0.53, 5.34, and 0.69 respectively. Meanwhile validation period resulted better performance (R2 = 0.70, NSE = 0.68, PBIAS = -4.13, and RSR = 0.57) than calibration. After Model was developed, then the impacts of climate changes on the watershed response were evaluated using MIKE SHE Model in order to determine the quantities of water resources in 30 years past (1986-2015) and 30 years (2021-2050) later. Eventually, the results showed that the annual actual evapotranspiration has decreased significantly. The increase of overland flow quantity in future projection was tied by the decrease of actual evapotranspiration. Meanwhile, water in unsaturated and saturated zone of historic and future period were not significant changes. It can be safely said that climate changes in watershed do not significantly influence water resources in unsaturated and saturated zone.
Article Details
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
References
Prasanchum H, Phisnok S, Thinubol S. Application of the SWAT model for evaluating discharge and sediment yield in the Huay Luang Catchment, Northeast of Thailand. ASM Sci J. 2021;14:1-16.
Masthawee F, Vansarochana A, Sukthawee P, Amornpatanawat S. Uncertainty of GSMaP and PERSIANN dataset for precipitation estimation in Huai Luang Basin. International Symposium on Geoinformatics for Spatial Infrastructure Development in Earth and Allied Sciences; 2018 Nov 22-25; Can Tho, Vietnam. 2018.
Vansarochanaa A, Pimanb T, Pawattanac C, Aekakkararungroj A, Hormwichian R. Trend analysis of historical rainfall data comparison with probabilistic statistical rainfall surface and bayesian flood phenomenon investigation using GIS techniques in Huai Luang Watershed, Thailand. International Conference on GeoInformatics for Spatial-Infrastructure Development in Earth & Allied Sciences (GISIDEAS); 2014 Nov 12-15; Hanoi, Vietnam. 2016.
Plangoen P, Udmale P. Impacts of climate change on rainfall erosivity in the Huai Luang Watershed, Thailand. Atmosphere (Basel). 2017;8(8):1-18.
Pholkern K, Saraphirom P, Srisuk K. Potential impact of climate change on groundwater resources in the Central Huai Luang Basin, Northeast Thailand. Sci Total Environ. 2018;633(2):1518-35.
Trisurat Y, Aekakkararungroj A, Ma H, Johnston JM. Basin-wide impacts of climate change on ecosystem services in the Lower Mekong Basin. Ecol Res. 2018;33(1):73-86.
Piman T, Pawattana C, Vansarochana A, Aekakkararungroj A, Hormwichian R. Analysis of historical changes in rainfall in Huai Luang Watershed, Thailand. Int J Technol. 2016;7(7):1155-62.
Middelkoop H, Daamen K, Gellens D, Grabs W, Kwadijk JCJ, Lang H, et al. Impact of climate change on hydrological regimes and water resources management in the Rhine Basin. Climatic Change. 2001;49(1):105-28.
Hamlet AF, Lettenmaier DP. Effects of climate change on hydrology and water resources in the Columbia River Basin. J Am Water Resour Assoc. 1999;35(6):1597-623.
Karamouz M, Nazif S, Falahi M. Hydrology and hydroclimatology. Boca Raton: CRC Press; 2012.
Bengtsson L. Foreword: International Space Science Institute (ISSI) workshop on the earth’s hydrological cycle. Surv Geophys. 2014;35(3):485-8.
Sharma KD, Sorooshian S, Wheater H. Hydrological modelling in arid and semi-arid areas. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press; 2007.
Gosain AK, Mani A, Dwivedi C. Hydrological modelling-literature review. Adv Fluid Mech. 2009;339:63-70.
Thiery D. Forecast of changes in piezometric levels by a lumped hydrological model. J Hydrol. 1988;97(1-2):129-48.
Abu El-Nasr A, Arnold JG, Feyen J, Berlamont J. Modelling the hydrology of a catchment using a distributed and a semi-distributed model. Hydrol Process. 2005;19(3):573-87.
Dwarakish GS, Ganasri BP. Impact of land use change on hydrological systems: a review of current modeling approaches. Cogent Geosci. 2015;1(1):1115691.
Feyen L, Vazquez R, Christiaens K, Sels O, Feyen J. Application of distributed physically-based hydrological model to medium size chatchment. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci. 2000;4(1):47-63.
Borah DK, Bera M. Watershed-Scale hydrologic and nonpoint-source pollution models: review of mathematical bases. Am Soc Agric Eng. 2003;46(6):1553-66.
Golmohammadi G, Prasher S, Madani A, Rudra R. Evaluating three hydrological distributed watershed models: MIKE-SHE, APEX, SWAT. Hydrology. 2014;1(1):20-39.
Ma L, He C, Bian H, Sheng L. MIKE SHE modeling of ecohydrological processes: merits, applications, and challenges. Ecol Eng. 2016;96(5):137-49.
Frana AS. Applicability of MIKE SHE to simulate hydrology in heavily tile drained agricultural land and effects of drainage characteristics on hydrology [thesis]. Iowa: Iowa State University; 2012.
Paul M. Impacts of land use and climate changes on hydrological processes in South Dakota Watersheds [thesis]. South Dakota: South Dakota State University; 2016.
European Commission. Guidance document on the application of water balances for supporting the implementation of the WFD. Luxembourg: European Communities; 2015.
DHI. Mike SHE user manual, volume 2: reference guide. Vol. 2. Hørsholm: Danish Hydraulic Institute; 2012.
Liuxin, Dian-wu W, Dao-cai C, Yangning. Runoff simulation in semi-humid region by coupling mike SHE with MIKE 11. Open Civ Eng J. 2015;9:840-5.
Rahim BEA, Yusoff I, Jafri AM, Othman Z, Ghani AA. Application of MIKE SHE modelling system to set up a detailed water balance computation. Water Environ J. 2012;26(4):490-503.
Myneni R, Knyazikhin Y, Park T. MCD15A3H MODIS/Terra+Aqua Leaf Area Index/FPAR 4-day L4 Global 500m SIN Grid V006 [Data set] [Internet]. Washington: NASA EOSDIS Land Processes DAAC; 2015 [cited 2021 Aug 10] Available from: https://lpdaac.usgs.gov/products/mcd15a3hv006/.
Chaowiwat W, Kamnoet O, Weesakul S. Future drought characteristics over Thailand by using bias corrected multi CMIP5 general circulation model. International Conference of Multidisciplinary Approaches on UN Sustainable Development Goals (UNSDGs); 2016 Dec 28-29; Bangkok, Thailand. Nakhon Pathom: Research and Development Institute Nakhon Pathom Rajabhat University; 2016.
van Vuuren DP, Edmonds J, Kainuma M, Riahi K, Thomson A, Hibbard K, et al. The representative concentration pathways: an overview. Climatic Change. 2011;109(1):5-31.
Berg P, Feldmann H, Panitz HJ. Bias correction of high resolution regional climate model data. J Hydrol. 2012;448:80-92.
DHI. Mike SHE user manual, volume 1: user guide. Vol. 1. Hørsholm: Danish Hydraulic Institute; 2012.
Dai Z, Li C, Trettin C, Sun G, Amatya D, Li H. Bi-criteria evaluation of the MIKE SHE model for a forested watershed on the South Carolina coastal plain. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci. 2010;14(6):1033-46.
Moriasi DN, Arnold JG, Van Liew MW, Bingner RL, Harmel RD, Veith TL. Model evaluation guidelines for systematic quantification of accuracy in watershed simulations. Am Soc Agric Biol Eng. 2007;50(3):885-900.
Daggupati P, Pai N, Ale S, Douglas-Mankin KR, Zeckoski RW, Jeong J, et al. A recommended calibration and validation strategy for hydrologic and water quality models. Trans ASABE. 2015;58(6):1705-19.
Mohamadi MA, Kavian A. Effects of rainfall patterns on runoff and soil erosion in field plots. Int Soil Water Conserv Res. 2015;3(4):273-81.
Chang J, Wang Y, Istanbulluoglu E, Bai T, Huang Q, Yang D, et al. Impact of climate change and human activities on runoff in the Weihe River Basin, China. Quat Int. 2015;380-381:169-79.
Xia J, Zeng S, Du H, Zhan C. Quantifying the effects of climate change and human activities on runoff in the water source area of Beijing, China. Hydrol Sci J. 2014;59(10):1794-807.
Keshta N, Elshorbagy A, Carey S. Impacts of climate change on soil moisture and evapotranspiration in reconstructed watersheds in northern Alberta, Canada. Hydrol Process. 2012;26(9):1321-31.
Holsten A, Vetter T, Vohland K, Krysanova V. Impact of climate change on soil moisture dynamics in Brandenburg with a focus on nature conservation areas. Ecol Modell. 2009;220(17):2076-87.
Nistor MM, Dezsi S, Cheval S, Baciu M. Climate change effects on groundwater resources: a new assessment method through climate indices and effective precipitation in Beliş district, Western Carpathians. Meteorol Appl. 2016;23(3):554-61.
Kumar CP. Climate change and its impact on groundwater resources. Int J Eng Sci. 2012;1(5):43-60.
Mc M. Climate change impacts on groundwater: literature review. Environ Risk Assess Remediat. 2017;2(1):16-20.