The Study of the Demand of Surface-to-air Missile for War Reserve Stockpile Using Forecasting and Material Requirement Planning Techniques

Abstract

Arms procurement in many regions across the world is estimated to have increased in recent years. The literature shows that defense budgets in several countries are spent for munitions and equipment by military services. This can cause international security concerns and regional territorial disputes which are key drivers for wars or international conflicts in the future. As a result, more countries put more emphasis on the security aspect by stocking ammunition for utilising during the initial month as war reserve and also for military exercise during peacetime. However, due to a lack of specific capabilities, purchasing and procuring military arms from the global markets must be well-planned for those in the regions vulnerable for international conflicts. To this end, the purpose of this research is to study the demand of surface-to-air missile (SAM) for both war reserve stockpile and military exercise during peacetime. This study applies forecasting and material requirement planning techniques to achieve the research objectives. A military scenario of a country and its initial data are set up and simulated respectively for describing the research methodologies. Based on the randomised data, the result shows that simple linear regression is suitable for implementing in this research. By manipulating the dataset obtained from the forecast model, a material requirement planning is established and then illustrated a time duration to accomplish the SAM stock sufficiency to meet the war reserve policy and also serving the military exercise missions of the forecast-based scenario.