Scenario analysis for Green City model: Case study of Chiang Mai World Green City Model, Thailand
Keywords:
scenario analysis, trend analysis, mathematical model, carbon neutral community, low carbon society, green city modelAbstract
The principle of life cycle assessment, linear regression and trend analysis were applied to develop a Chiang Mai World Green City (CWGC) that could be used to estimate the CO2 balance cycle at the Asian Development College for Community Economy and Technology (adiCET), Chiang Mai Rajabhat University, Thailand. From the CWGC model, scenario analysis was used as tool to determine the appropriate activities in terms of carbon neutral target. adiCET aims to be the first practical carbon neutral community in Thailand. adiCET could apply the result of CWGC model as a guideline of green city master plan. The data was observed and collected from the beginning of construction in 2011 to normal operation phase in the period of approximately 3.5 years. The CO2 balance in CWGC model was calculated in terms of actual CO2 and relative CO2 value based on 15 years’ simulation. The result of business as usual scenario showed the net accumulated CO2 has gradually increased annually and the value is +2,001,834 kgCO2 in the final year. For the best scenario, the net accumulated CO2 is -7,505 kgCO2e in which the trend decreases to nearly zero as the ideal carbon neutral concept from the 4th year until the final year. The results of the best scenario revealed the potential that adiCET could achieve the carbon neutral goals as mentioned with the appropriate implementation of carbon mitigation activities.References
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