Analysis of Line Instability in Microgrid by Applying Electrical Power Forecasting Approach
Keywords:
Electric Power Forecasting, Microgrid, Power Flow, Line StabilityAbstract
The line instability and electrical power forecasting are essential techniques for operation control and planning in the microgrid. This paper presents an analysis of the line instability in microgrid by applying the electrical power forecasting approach. A mathematical model of power forecasting was examined using the modified GM (1, 1) model. Besides that, the power flow was represented using a modified IEEE 30 bus test system in MATLAB. Finally, the line instability was analyzed based on the results of power flow, using line stability factor (LQP). The results exhibited that the actual power was close to the power forecasting when the modified GM (1, 1) model combined together with exponential smoothing method. There was a high accuracy of prediction with Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) less than 1 %. Apart from that, it was cleared shown that the most critical line was 28-27, with a line instability factor of 0.963. The second and third most vital lines were 25-26 and 2-4, having instability factors of 0.759 and 0.568, respectively. For a next day operation and planning in the microgrid, care must be taken by the utility operator to make sure that the microgrid is managed successfully.
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