Impacts of Land Use and Rainfall Frequency Changes on Peak Discharges and Inundation Areas in the Lower Nam Phong River Basin
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Abstract
The study on the impacts of land use and rainfall changes on peak discharges and inundation areas in the Lower Nam Phong River Basin was undertaken by applying the HEC-HMS model for simulating the hydrological processes in the lower Nam Phong River Basin. The observed daily discharges at E.22B gauging station during the periods of 2005 – 2011 and 2011 – 2017 were used for model calibration (R2 = 0.84, Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency, ENS = 0.82) and model validation (R2 = 0.84, ENS = 0.83), respectively. In view of hydraulic modelling of river and floodplain systems, the HEC-RAS model was applied by using the observed daily water levels at E.22B gauging station during the years 2005 – 2011 and 2011 – 2017 for model calibration (R2 = 0.91, ENS = 0.75) and model validation (R2 = 0.86, ENS = 0.82), respectively. Regarding the sequential application of HEC-HMS and HEC-RAS models for assessing the impacts of land use change (from year 2015 to 2020, 2025, 2040, 2065, and 2115), and the rainfall under 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 year-return periods, it was found that the future peak discharges at the Nam Phong-Chi confluence will be increased from 751.1 m3/s (under the 2015 rainfall event and the 2020 land use coverage) to 1,159.0 m3/s (under the 100 year-return period of rainfall event and the 2115 land use coverage). The future flood risk areas in the Lower Nam Phong River Basin will also be increased from 100.04 km2 (under the 5 year-return period of rainfall event and the 2015 land use coverage) to 184.26 km2 (under the 100 year-return period of rainfall event and the 2115 land use coverage). Finally, the main findings from this study will provide important information for dealing with floods, warning purpose, and minimizing possible future flood risks and damages
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