การพยากรณ์จำแนกกลุ่มผู้รับเหมาก่อสร้างโครงการบ้านจัดสรรตามอัตราการทำงานแล้วเสร็จทันกำหนดเวลา
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The purpose of this research was to evaluate the accuracy of using each contractor characteristic in predicting the classification of housing estate contractors according to the rate of on-time completion. The study was done in three steps, as followed. First, between June, 2016 and March 2017, the on-time completion rate of the 90 contractors in 21 reinforced concrete housing estate projects in Bangkok and its environs with housing prices ranging from 4.99 million to 8 million baht was investigated. The average on-time completion rate from sample group was 85.96%. According to this average, the contractors were classified into two groups: those who achieved the on-time completion rate higher than the set average and those who achieved lower than the set average. Second, the contactor characteristics and criteria for each characteristic that should be used in predicting the classification of contractors based on their on-time completion rates were compiled and identified. Third, the accuracy percentage of prediction when using each of the contractors’ characteristics in predicting the classification of contractors was evaluated. The findings of the study showed that the eight most effective characteristics (those with an accuracy percentage of prediction of 70% or above) are X7: experience of project manager (84.40%), X20: sufficient scaffolding (80.00%), X21: sufficient formwork (80.00%), X8: the number of foremen in the project (75.60%), X16: having mobile cranes in the project (72.22%), X10: the average number of structure workers per house (72.20%), X12: the average number of plumbers per house (72.20%), and X15: having a store officer in the project (70.00%).
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