A Comprehensive Bibliometric Analysis of Material Cost Escalation in Building Construction

Sanyogita Sanjay Desai; Jayant A. Patil

doi:10.55003/ETH.430209

Authors

Sanyogita Sanjay Desai Ashokrao Mane Group of Institutions, India
Jayant A. Patil Ashokrao Mane Group of Institutions, India

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.55003/ETH.430209

Keywords:

Bibliometric Analysis, Construction Materials, Cost Escalation, Material Price Volatility, Risk Management

Abstract

Rising costs of construction materials, particularly steel, concrete, and other materials, have become a huge international issue, as they have affected the budgets of the project and its viability as well as its affordability. The recent inflation, supply-chain turmoil, and political unrest are increasing the cost volatility, and escalating material prices have become the focus of construction research. The Dimensions AI database was used to conduct a bibliometric analysis (2002-2025). A specific search query has been used to obtain literature on cost increases, price fluctuations, and construction materials. After data cleaning, VOSviewer provided the possibility to analyze the trends of publications, performance on citations, the largest institutions, journals, and clusters of keywords. Publication trends showed substantial research growth after 2012, with Nigeria, China, Malaysia, and India emerging as major contributing countries, while leading institutional and journal contributions were associated with Hanyang University, Obafemi Awolowo University, the International Journal of Project Management, and the Journal of Construction Engineering and Management. Network measures pointed out common themes and patterns of research. Two large clusters were identified: (1) a problem-focused cluster centered on cost, overrun, risk, and time; and (2) a solution-focused cluster emphasizing strategy, knowledge, tools, and implementation. To enhance analytical depth, a temporal burst analysis was performed using document-level bigram extraction and structure break detection (PELT algorithm) in RStudio. Results reveal a structural shift around 2012 toward intensified project-level cost overrun research, followed by post-2023 acceleration in governance and digital-oriented themes such as stakeholder collaboration and BIM-based approaches, highlighting evolving mitigation strategies for cost volatility.

References

S. Khursheed, S. Sharma, V. K. Paul, M. Al-Farouni and C. Yoldosheva, “Forecasting Delays and Budget overruns resulting from Material-Related Factors,” E3S Web of Conferences, vol. 563, 2024, Art. no. 02045, doi: 10.1051/e3sconf/202456302045.

I. О. Shaposhnikova, “ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF INCREASING COSTS OF CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS ON HOUSING AFFORDABILITY,” Building production, no. 78, pp. 110–116, 2025, doi: 10.36750/2524-2555.78.110-116.

Y. Jezzini, R. H. Assaad, I. H. El-adaway and M. Abdul Nabi, “An Accurate-Pricing Estimate Game-Theoretic Model for Determining Price Escalations in Construction Projects during Economic Uncertainties,” in Construction Research Congress 2024, Des Moines, IA, USA, Mar. 20–23, 2024, pp. 1170–1180. doi: 10.1061/9780784485262.119.

J. K. Larsen, G. Q. Shen, S. M. Lindhard and T. D. Brunoe, “Factors Affecting Schedule Delay, Cost Overrun, and Quality Level in Public Construction Projects,” Journal of Management in Engineering, vol. 32, no. 1, 2016, Art. no. 04015032, doi: 10.1061/(asce)me.1943-5479.0000391.

M. Borse and P. Khare, “Analysis of Cost and Schedule Overrun in Construction Projects,” IJISET - International Journal of Innovative Science, Engineering & Technology, vol. 3, no. 1, pp. 383–386, 2016.

S. S. Mulla and A. P. Waghmare, “A Study of Factors Caused for Time & Cost Overruns in Construction Project & their Remedial Measures,” Journal of Engineering Research and Applications, vol. 5, no. 1, pp. 48–53, 2015.

O. A. Olatunji, A. O. Orundami and O. Ogundare, “Causal relationship between material price fluctuation and project’s outturn costs,” Built Environment Project and Asset Management, vol. 8, no. 4, pp. 358–371, 2018, doi: 10.1108/BEPAM-12-2017-0119.

A. Y. Akal, “Inflation and Reinforced Concrete Materials: An Investigation of Economic and Environmental Effects,” Sustainability, vol. 15, no. 9, 2023, Art. no. 7687, doi: 10.3390/su15097687.

S. S. Uvarova, S. V. Belyaeva and V. A. Bolgov, “Assessment and modelling the dynamics of building materials prices in the current conditions,” Real estate: economics, management, no. 1, pp. 27–32, 2023, doi: 10.22337/2073-8412-2023-1-27-32.

A. K. Orlov and V. A. Bolgov, “Forecasting prices for the main building materials in a context of uncertainty: method and practice,” Vestnik MGSU, no. 2, pp. 293–303, 2023, doi: 10.22227/1997-0935.2023.2.293-303.

M. Mir, H. M. D. Kabir, F. Nasirzadeh and A. Khosravi, “Neural network-based interval forecasting of construction material prices,” Journal of Building Engineering, vol. 39, 2021, Art. no. 102288, doi: 10.1016/j.jobe.2021.102288.

S. Hosny, E. Elsaid and H. Hosny, “Prediction of construction material prices using ARIMA and multiple regression models,” Asian Journal of Civil Engineering, vol. 24, no. 6, pp. 1697–1710, 2023, doi: 10.1007/s42107-023-00597-2.

S. Yadav and A. Gosavi, “Risk of Increase in Prices of Performance in Indian Construction Industry and Sufficiency of Contractual Provision to Mitigate the Same in EPC and Item Rate Contract,” in Proc. Sustainable Infrastructure Development & Management (SIDM) 2019, , Nagpur, India, Feb. 22–23, 2019, pp. 1–8, doi: 10.2139/ssrn.3381686.

N. Suman and S. Tominc, “Contract price change during the construction phase: unforeseen market conditions,” Organization, Technology and Management in Construction: an International Journal, vol. 16, no. 1, pp. 109–122, 2024, doi: 10.2478/otmcj-2024-0009.

A. Shiha, E. M. Dorra and K. Nassar, “Identification of Price Leading Indicators for Construction Resources,” in Proc. 7h World Congress on Civil, Structural, and Environmental Engineering (CSEE'22), Apr. 10–12, 2022. pp. 1–10, doi: 10.11159/icsect22.112.

A. Maqsoom, L. Prasittisopin, M. A. Musarat, F. Ullah and F. K. Alqahtani, “Construction Price Index Prediction through ARMA with Inflation Effect: Case of Thailand Construction Industry,” Buildings, vol. 14, no. 5, 2024, Art. no. 1243, doi: 10.3390/buildings14051243.

Y. Belay and D. Jain, “Assessing the Effects of Price Escalation on Building Construction Projects in Adama, Ethiopia,” American Journal of Management Science and Engineering, vol. 8, no. 2, pp. 56–62, 2023, doi: 10.11648/j.ajmse.20230802.13.

K. Thilakshan, B. Arsecularatne and Y. G. Sandanayake, “Impact of economic decisions on building construction material prices in Sri Lanka,” in Proc. 11th World Construction Symposium, Sri Lanka, Jul. 21–22, 2023, pp. 569–581. doi: 10.31705/WCS.2023.47.

M. Ezzat, V. Gerges, A. Elsharkawy and A. Hassan, “BIM integration for cost management included inflation and market volatility,” IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, vol. 1530, no. 1, 2025, Art. no. 012043, doi: 10.1088/1755-1315/1530/1/012043.

G. Assaf, R. H. Assaad, I. H. El-adaway and M. Abdul Nabi, “Predicting Construction Costs under Uncertain Market Conditions: Probabilistic Forecasting Using Autoregressive Recurrent Networks Based on DeepAR,” in Construction Research Congress 2024, Des Moines, IA, USA, Mar. 20–23, 2024, pp. 253–262. doi: 10.1061/9780784485286.026.

B. Aslam, A. Maqsoom, H. Inam, M. ul Basharat and F. Ullah, “Forecasting Construction Cost Index through Artificial Intelligence,” Societies, vol. 13, no. 10, 2023, Art. no. 219, doi: 10.3390/soc13100219.

Tung Nhu Nguyen, “Estimating Project Costs and Time under Uncertainties: A Stochastic Model for Inflation and Supply Changes During and After the Covid19 Pandemic,” in Proc. 3rd Asia Pacific International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Operations Management, Johor Bahru, Malaysia, Sep. 13–15, 2022, pp. 1765–1770. doi: 10.46254/AP03.20220302.

C. Herzog, D. Hook and S. Konkiel, “Dimensions: Bringing down barriers between scientometricians and data,” Quantitative Science Studies, vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 387–395, 2020, doi: 10.1162/qss_a_00020.

V. K. Singh, P. Singh, M. Karmakar, J. Leta and P. Mayr, “The journal coverage of Web of Science, Scopus and Dimensions: A comparative analysis,” Scientometrics, vol. 126, no. 6, pp. 5113–5142, 2021, doi: 10.1007/s11192-021-03948-5.

M. Thelwall, “Dimensions: A competitor to Scopus and the Web of Science?,” Journal of Informetrics, vol. 12, no. 2, pp. 430–435, 2018, doi: 10.1016/j.joi.2018.03.006.

P. García-Sánchez, A. M. Mora, P. A. Castillo and I. J. Pérez, “A bibliometric study of the research area of videogames using Dimensions.ai database,” Procedia Computer Science, vol. 162, pp. 737–744, 2019, doi: 10.1016/j.procs.2019.12.045.

B. Alabi and J. Fapohunda, “Effects of Increase in the Cost of Building Materials on the Delivery of Affordable Housing in South Africa,” Sustainability, vol. 13, no. 4, 2021, Art. no. 1772, doi: 10.3390/su13041772.

M. A. Musarat, W. S. Alaloul, M. S. Liew, A. Maqsoom and A. H. Qureshi, “Investigating the impact of inflation on building materials prices in construction industry,” Journal of Building Engineering, vol. 32, 2020, Art. no. 101485, doi: 10.1016/j.jobe.2020.101485.

I. N. Khaimovich and O. V. Didkovskaya, “Forecasting Of The Cost Of Building Materials In A Volatile Market,” in Proc. III Int. Conf. Econ. Soc. Trends Sustain. Mod. Soc. – (ICEST-III 2022), Krasnoyarsk, Russia, May 19–21, 2022, pp. 258–268, doi: 10.15405/epsbs.2022.08.29.

X. Dai, P. Gao and S. Ma, “Cost Forecasting for Building Rebar under Uncertainty Conditions: Methodology and Practice,” Buildings, vol. 14, no. 7, 2024, Art. no. 1900, doi: 10.3390/buildings14071900.

M. Gunduz, K. K. Naji and H. Al-Marri, “Factors Driving Construction Material Price Volatility in Qatar’s Construction Industry: An Investigation Using Generalized Structured Component Analysis (GSCA),” Buildings, vol. 15, no. 9, 2025, Art. no. 1475, doi: 10.3390/buildings15091475.

E. Endawati and B. Susetyo, “Evaluation of Factors of Design Change, Material Availability and Labor Productivity Against Cost Performance on Office Building Projects,” Journal of Social Research, vol. 2, no. 5, pp. 1691–1707, 2023. doi: 10.55324/josr.v2i5.875.

F. U. Ikechukwu, “Investigation on the Influence of Building Materials Price Fluctuation on Cost of Building Products in Nigeria,” Current Journal of Applied Science and Technology, vol. 40, no. 2, pp. 118–130, 2021, doi: 10.9734/cjast/2021/v40i231265.

F. Oladipo and O. Oni, “Review of Selected Macroeconomic Factors Impacting Building Material Prices in Developing Countries – A Case Of Nigeria,” Ethiopian Journal of Environmental Studies and Management, vol. 5, no. 2, pp.131–167, 2012, doi: 10.4314/ejesm.v5i2.3.

S. S. Uvarova, S. V. Belyaeva and V. A. Bolgov, “Assessment and modelling the dynamics of building materials prices in the current conditions,” Real estate: economics, management, no. 1, pp. 27–32, 2023, doi: 10.22337/2073-8412-2023-1-27-32.

M. A. Nabi, B. Chammout, I. H. El-Adaway, R. H. Assaad and G. Assaf, “Investigating Price Fluctuation Transmission among Construction Materials,” in Construction Research Congress 2024, Des Moines, IA, USA, Mar. 20–23, 2024, pp. 339–349, doi: 10.1061/9780784485286.035.

I. S. Ahn, J. J. Kim and J. S. Lee, “Development of a Cost Prediction Model for Design Changes: Case of Korean Apartment Housing Projects,” Sustainability, vol. 16, no. 11, 2024, Art. no. 4322, doi: 10.3390/su16114322.

S. Hwang, M. Park, H. -S. Lee and H. Kim, “Automated Time-Series Cost Forecasting System for Construction Materials,” Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, vol. 138, no. 11, pp. 1259–1269, 2012, doi: 10.1061/(asce)co.1943-7862.0000536.

H. V. Nguyen, M. A. Naeem, N. Wichitaksorn and R. Pears, “A smart system for short-term price prediction using time series models,” Computers & Electrical Engineering, vol. 76, pp. 339–352, 2019, doi: 10.1016/j.compeleceng.2019.04.013.

S. Xiong, C. Nie, Y. Lu and J. Zheng, “Research on Price Prediction of Construction Materials Based on VMD-SSA-LSTM,” Applied Sciences, vol. 15, no. 4, 2025, Art. no. 2005, doi: 10.3390/app15042005.

M. Ma, V. W. Y. Tam, K. N. Le and R. Osei-Kyei, “A systematic literature review on price forecasting models in construction industry,” International Journal of Construction Management, vol. 24, no. 11, pp. 1191–1200, 2023, doi: 10.1080/15623599.2023.2241761.

C. Okonkwo, U. F. Evans and S. Ekung, “Unearthing direct and indirect material waste-related factors underpinning cost overruns in construction projects,” International Journal of Construction Management, vol. 23, no. 13, pp. 2298–2304, 2022, doi: 10.1080/15623599.2022.2052431.

S. Yıldız, S. Güneş and S. Kıvrak, “Examining the Impact of Material Management Practices on Project Performance in the Construction Industry,” Buildings, vol. 14, no. 7, 2024, Art. no. 2076, doi: 10.3390/buildings14072076.

I. Saidu and W. Shakantu, “A post-contract project analysis of material waste and cost overrun on construction sites in Abuja, Nigeria,” Acta Structilia, vol. 24, no. 2, pp. 77–105, 2017, doi: 10.18820/24150487/as24i2.3.

A. A. Aibinu and G. O. Jagboro, “The effects of construction delays on project delivery in Nigerian construction industry,” International Journal of Project Management, vol. 20, no. 8, pp. 593–599, 2002, doi: 10.1016/S0263-7863(02)00028-5.

X. Zhao, B. -G. Hwang and Y. Gao, “A fuzzy synthetic evaluation approach for risk assessment: a case of Singapore’s green projects,” Journal of Cleaner Production, vol. 115, pp. 203–213, 2016, doi: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2015.11.042.

S. Han, P. Love and F. Peña-Mora, “A system dynamics model for assessing the impacts of design errors in construction projects,” Mathematical and Computer Modelling, vol. 57, no. 9–10, pp. 2044–2053, 2013, doi: 10.1016/j.mcm.2011.06.039.

C. T. Amoatey, Y. A. Ameyaw, E. Adaku and S. Famiyeh, “Analysing delay causes and effects in Ghanaian state housing construction projects,” International Journal of Managing Projects in Business, vol. 8, no. 1, pp. 198–214, 2015, doi: 10.1108/IJMPB-04-2014-0035.

L. Luo, X. Jin, G. Q. Shen, Y. Wang, X. Liang, X. Li and Clyde Zhengdao Li, “Supply Chain Management for Prefabricated Building Projects in Hong Kong,” Journal of Management in Engineering, vol. 36, no. 2, 2020, doi: 10.1061/(ASCE)ME.1943-5479.0000739.

A. E. Yildiz, I. Dikmen, M. T. Birgonul, K. Ercoskun and S. Alten, “A knowledge-based risk mapping tool for cost estimation of international construction projects,” Automation in Construction, vol. 43, pp. 144–155, 2014, doi: 10.1016/j.autcon.2014.03.010.

A. Senouci, A. Ismail and N. Eldin, “Time Delay and Cost Overrun in Qatari Public Construction Projects,” Procedia Engineering, vol. 164, pp. 368–375, 2016, doi: 10.1016/j.proeng.2016.11.632.

P. O. Akanni, A. E. Oke and O. A. Akpomiemie, “Impact of environmental factors on building project performance in Delta State, Nigeria,” HBRC Journal, vol. 11, no. 1, pp. 91–97, 2015, doi: 10.1016/j.hbrcj.2014.02.010.

J. B. H. Yap and M. Skitmore, “Investigating design changes in Malaysian building projects,” Architectural Engineering and Design Management, vol. 14, no. 3, pp. 218–238, 2017, doi: 10.1080/17452007.2017.1384714.

S. Shoar, N. Chileshe and J. D. Edwards, “Machine learning-aided engineering services’ cost overruns prediction in high-rise residential building projects: Application of random forest regression,” Journal of Building Engineering, vol. 50, 2022, Art. no. 104102, doi: 10.1016/j.jobe.2022.104102.