Impact of exponential smoothing forecasting technique on bullwhip effect index under a dual-supplier supply chain system

Authors

  • Kittiwat Sirikasemsuk Department of Industrial Engineering, School of Engineering, King Mongkut’s Institute of Technology Ladkrabang
  • Warisa Thangjai Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science, Ramkhamhaeng University
  • Tossapol Kiatcharoenpol Department of Industrial Engineering, School of Engineering, King Mongkut’s Institute of Technology Ladkrabang
  • Laksiri Treeranurat Department of Industrial Engineering and Manufacturing, Faculty of Engineering, Prince of Songkla University
  • Darin Luanwiset Department of Environment, Faculty of Science, Udon Thani Rajabhat University
  • Apiradee Sukmilin Environmental Science and Technology Program, Faculty of Science and Technology, Phranakhon Rajabhat University
  • Jaruwan Kaewluan Department of Industrial Engineering, School of Engineering, King Mongkut’s Institute of Technology Ladkrabang
  • Jutamart Ketkaew Department of Industrial Engineering, School of Engineering, King Mongkut’s Institute of Technology Ladkrabang
  • Kanogkan Leerojanaprapa Statistics Department, Faculty of Science, King Mongkut’s Institute of Technology Ladkrabang

Keywords:

Supply Chain, Bullwhip Effect, Dual-supplier System, Order-up-to Inventory, Exponential Smoothing Forecasting Technique

Abstract

This research objective is to study and simulate the bullwhip effect under a dual-supplier system. The bullwhip effect is an adverse phenomenon in the supply chain in which the demand variance at upstream members is higher than the demand variance at downstream members. A dual-supplier system consists of a sub-supplier, two suppliers and a retailer. In this research, all members use the exponential smoothing forecasting technique and the order-up-to inventory policy. Also, it is assumed that the incoming demand process for the retailer is the first order autoregressive (AR(1)) model. In the important scope of this research, the lead times from two suppliers to a retailer are equal. After analysis, it is found that the factor of the proportion of the supplier's order quantity to the total order quantity issued by the retailer does not affect the bullwhip effect index. Hence, the bullwhip effect values between the dual-supplier and single-supplier models are equal. In addition, the bullwhip effects vary according to the smoothing factor of the exponential smoothing forecasting technique; and the first-order autocorrelation coefficient has an effect on the bullwhip effects. Finally, purchasing and supply chain managers will gain and increase a clear understanding of such behavior matters in the dual-supplier or single-supplier systems in the supply chain from this current research.

References

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Published

2021-12-29

How to Cite

[1]
K. . Sirikasemsuk, “Impact of exponential smoothing forecasting technique on bullwhip effect index under a dual-supplier supply chain system ”, Eng. &amp; Technol. Horiz., vol. 38, no. 4, pp. 115–129, Dec. 2021.

Issue

Vol. 38 No. 4 (2021): October - December

Section

Research Articles

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