Effect of uncertainties in prediction models of shallow and deep foundations
Article Sidebar
Main Article Content
Abstract
The primary objective in foundation design is to ensure that the foundation exhibits satisfactory behavior under regulatory loading conditions while addressing critical safety concerns. This study aims to investigate the impact of parameter uncertainties in prediction models for bearing capacity and settlement of shallow and deep foundations on resulting failure probabilities using various approximation methods. Recognizing the complexity of reliability studies, this research explores the possibility of not probabilizing all variables and simplifying calculations for future applications. Additionally, it aims to assess the effectiveness of commonly used approximation methods in geotechnical engineering for estimating failure probabilities. The study's findings would enhance foundation reliability indices and decrease the probability of failure. The parametric study has enabled us to identify the variables that are most sensitive to changes in their coefficient of variation. The influence of model selection on foundation reliability is emphasized, and a critical evaluation of model bias is crucial for reliability analysis. It is evident that conservative models may shift subsequently calculated failure probabilities by inaccurately assigning situations from the safe domain to the failure domain due to inherent conservatism.
Article Details
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
References
Rama Raju PJ, Chandra Shah M. Reliability of foundation performance and implications for structural. Yantu Gongcheng Xuebao/Chin J Geotech Eng. 2022;44(1):35-8.
Ray R, Samui P, Roy LB. Reliability analysis of a shallow foundation on clayey soil based on settlement criteria. J Curr Sci Technol. 2023;13(1):91-106.
Chwała M, Zhang W. Broken line random failure mechanism method in foundation bearing capacity assessment for spatially variable soil. Comput Geotech. 2022;150:104903.
Dodigović F, Ivandić K, Kovačević MS, Soldo B. Error evaluation and suitability assessment of common reliability methods in the case of shallow foundations. Appl Sci. 2021;11(2):795.
Fatolahzadeh S, Mehdizadeh R. Reliability assessment of shallow foundation stability under eccentric load using monte carlo and first order second moment method. Geotech Geol Eng. 2021;39(8):5651-64.
Homaei F, Najafzadeh M. A reliability-based probabilistic evaluation of the wave-induced scour depth around marine structure piles. Ocean Eng. 2020;196:106818.
Motra HB, Stutz H, Wuttke F. Quality assessment of soil bearing capacity factor models of shallow foundations. Soils Found. 2016;56(2):265-76.
Ahmad M, Ahmad F, Wróblewski P, Al-Mansob RA, Olczak P, Kaminski P, et al. Prediction of ultimate bearing capacity of shallow foundations on cohesionless soils: a Gaussian process regression approach. Appl Sci. 2021;11(21):10317.
Terzaghi K. Theoretical soil mechanics. New York: John Wiley and Sons; 1943.
Meyerhof GG. Some recent research on the bearing capacity of foundations. Can Geotech J. 1963;1(1):16-26.
Hansen JB. A revised and extended formula for bearing capacity. Lyngby: Danish Geotechnical Institute; 1970.
Vesic AS. Bearing capacity of shallow foundations. In: Winterkorn HF, Fang HY, editors. Foundation Engineering Handbook. New York: Van Nostrand Reinhold; 1975. p. 121-47.
Das B. Principles of foundation engineering. Boston: Brooks/Cole-Thomson Learning; 2004.
Cheng Y, Zhou C, Xie J. Reliability analysis of foundation bearing capacity in generalized random space based on Hansen formula. Adv Mater Res. 2011;243-249:5751-5.
Xie J, Liu P. Reliability analysis of foundation pit engineering using support vector machine. 4th International Symposium on Traffic Transportation and Civil Architecture (ISTTCA); 2021 Nov 12-14; Suzhou, China. USA: IEEE; 2021. p. 646-50.
Baecher GB, Christian JT. Reliability and statistics in geotechnical engineering. Chichester: John Wiley; 2003.
Becker DE. Eighteenth Canadian geotechnical colloquium: limit states design for foundations. Part I. An overview of the foundation design process. Can Geotech J. 1996;33:956-83.
Cai GQ, Elishakoff I. Refined second order reliability analysis. Struct Saf. 1994;14(4):267-76.
Cherubini C. Probabilistic approach to the design of anchored sheet pile walls. Computers and Geotechnics. 2000;26(3-4):309-30.
National Research Council. Probabilistic methods in geotechnical engineering. Washington: National Research Council; 1995.
Duncan JM. Factors of safety and reliability in geotechnical engineering. J Geotech Geoenviron Eng. 2000;126(4):307-16.
Einstein HH. Risk and risk analysis in rock engineering. Tunn Undergr Space Technol. 1996;11(2):141-55.
Köylüoğlu HU, Nielsen SRK. New approximations for SORM integrals. Struct Saf. 1994;13(4):235-46.
Low BK, Tang WH. Reliability analysis using object-oriented constrained optimization. Struct Saf. 2004;26(1):69-89.
Melchers RE. Structural reliability analysis and prediction. 2nd ed. Chichester: John Wiley; 1999.
Phoon KK, Kulhawy FH. Evaluation of model uncertainties for reliability-base foundation design. Proceedings of 9th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering; 2003 July 6-9; San Francisco, United States. p. 1351-6.
Phoon KK, Kulhawy FH. Characterization of geotechnical variability. Can Geotech J. 1999;36(4):612-24.
Tafazzoli Moghaddam P, Fazeli Dehkordi P, Ghazavi M. Reliability analysis-based safety factor for stability of footings on frictional soils. Geomech Eng. 2023;33(6):543-52.
Rackwitz R. Reliability analysis – a review and some perspectives. Struct Saf. 2001;23(4):365-95.
Tichy M. First-order third-moment reliability method. Struct Saf. 1994;16(3):189-200.
Zhao YG, Ono T. New approximations for SORM: Part 1. J Eng Mech. 1999;125(1):86-93.
Zhao YG, Ono T. Moment methods for structural reliability. Struct Saf. 2001;23(1):47-75.
Ray R, Kumar D, Samui P, Roy LB, Goh ATC, Zhang W. Application of soft computing techniques for shallow foundation reliability in geotechnical engineering. Geosci Front. 2021;12(1):375-83.
Cornell CA. A probability based structural code. J Am Concr Inst. 1969;66(12):974-85.
Hasofer AM, Lind NC. An exact and invariant first order reliability format. J Eng Mech. 1974;100:111-21.
Haldar A, Mahadevan S. Probability, reliability and statistical methods in engineering design. New York: Wiley; 2000.
Department of the army, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE). Bearing capacity of soils, Manual No. 1110-1-1905. Washington: USACE; 1992.