Geospatial Modelling of Flood Susceptibility of the Calabar City, Cross River State, Nigeria
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Abstract
Flooding remains a major environmental problem in many parts of the world including Nigeria, causing untold losses. This study modelled the flood susceptibility of Calabar Metropolis using frequency ratio and geographical information system (GIS). Direct field observation and key informant approaches were used to obtain 127 previous and current flood locations in the study area from which a database of historical flood occurrence was developed. Using the geostatistical analyst tool within a geographical information environment the flood locations were split into two parts in the ratio of 70:30 percent for the training and testing processes, respectively. Eight flood conditioning factors (elevation, slope, aspect, curvature topographic position index, topographic wetness index, land cover and normalized difference vegetation index) were extracted from SRTM-30m DEM and Landsat 8 data accordingly and used in the geospatial analysis of flood occurrence within the GIS. The frequency ratio model was then developed using the training dataset. The final product was the flood susceptibility map of the study area. The results revealed that 9.3 percent of the study area was considered to have very high flood susceptibility, 19.97 percent was classified as high flood susceptibility while 31.79 percent was under moderate risk area. About 39 percent of the study area was classified at least under low flood susceptibility. The order of contribution of the conditioning factors to the model were topographic position index (TPI), elevation, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), land cover, curvature, aspect, slope, and topographic wetness index (TWI). The validation of the model using the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve returned an AUC value of 74.81 percent. Hence, the result was acceptable for the prediction of flood locations in the study area. The findings would assist urban planners, environmental managers, risk reduction and management agencies, land developers, policy makers, and indeed the general public.
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