Daily Wind Direction Forecast Model at an Altitude of 120 Meters, Pak Phanang District, Nakhon Si Thammarat Province

Abstract

The aim of this research is to construct five methods of forecasting daily wind direction at an altitude of 120 meters in Pak Phanang District, Nakhon Si Thammarat Province, namely, Box-Jenkins method, Holt’s exponential smoothing method, Brown’s exponential smoothing method, damped trend exponential smoothing method, and combined forecasting method. Time series of wind direction were gathered from research center in energy and environment, Thaksin university during 1 January 2012 to 30 June 2015 of 1,277 observations. The criteria of the lowest mean absolute percentage error and root mean squared error were used for comparing the suitability of the forecasting model. The study indicated that Brown’s exponential smoothing method was the most appropriate. The forecasting model could be utilized to increase the flexibility and efficiency of wind turbines in the direction of the forecast.