Model for forecasting Quantity of Natural Rubber Imports

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to construct the model for forecasting quantity of natural rubber imports. The data gathered from the website of Office of Agricultural Economics from January 2011 to July 2019 of 103 values were used and divided into 2 sets. The first set had 96 values from January 2011 to December 2018 for constructing the forecasting models by Box-Jenkins method, Holt’s exponential smoothing method, Brown’s exponential smoothing method, damped trend exponential smoothing method, simple seasonal exponential smoothing method, Winters’ additive exponential smoothing method, Winters’ multiplicative exponential smoothing method, and combined forecasting method. The second set had 7 values from January to July 2019 for comparing the accuracy of the forecasting model via the criterion of the lowest mean absolute percentage error. Research findings indicated that, the most accurate method is the combined forecasting method.