FUTURE SCENARIOS AND FORESIGHTS OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT FOR ASTRONOMY AND SPACE LEARNING CENTERS IN THAILAND

Abstract

This research aims to analyze and forecast future scenarios regarding the environmental management of astronomy and space learning centers in Thailand over the next decade. As the initial phase of a broader mixed-methods study, this article adopts a qualitative approach utilizing the Ethnographic Delphi Futures Research (EDFR) technique. A panel of 24 key experts was purposively selected; notably, 75% of the informants hold doctoral degrees, while 54.2% possess more than 16 years of professional experience. Data collection was conducted through in-depth inquiries, followed by rigorous content analysis.

The Phase 1 qualitative findings, extracted from in-depth inquiries, establish three distinct future scenarios. First, the worst-case scenario underscores impending crises driven by urban expansion, physical structures obstructing astronomical visibility, environmental negligence, and a disproportionate focus on research that consequently marginalizes public service. Second, the desirable scenario portrays the successful integration of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), net-zero carbon policies, responsible tourism, and the advancement of citizen science. Third, the most probable scenario reflects a pragmatic adaptation characterized by the concurrent use of technology and nature conservation, the establishment of collaborative networks, and workforce development designed to accommodate the emerging space economy. Ultimately, these findings provide a strategic empirical foundation for elevating Thailand’s astronomical learning facilities toward long-term sustainability.