The Trend of Numbers of Tropical Cyclone Moves toward Thailand under Climate Change

Abstract

– In the past, there would be annual averaged 3-4 tropical cyclones moving toward Thailand. Most of the rainfall from these tropical cyclones have been collected in many big and small reservoirs, and used to support mainly in agricultural activities and daily life consumption. Besides, the number and intensity of the tropical cyclones in each year might cause of flood and drought.

There are studies of climate change in Thailand that show an increasing trend of temperature. Therefore, it is necessary to study on trend of tropical cyclones moves into Thailand from the past to present under climate change. This study used data from various sources namely; the annual numbers of tropical cyclone in Thailand, the annual sea surface temperature (SST) over the tropical ocean and the oceanic Nino index data.

Using the simplified statistical analysis namely; averaging and linear correlation for all concerned data, it was found that the trend of the decadal numbers of tropical cyclone moves through Thailand was the significant linear trend decreasing until 1-2 tropical cyclones during 2011-2014. The SST in some regions of the South China Sea was increasing from 27.7 to 28.2^oC and the Western North Pacific Ocean was increasing from 28.2 to 28.9^oC. Additionally for El Nino year, the numbers of tropical cyclone was less than La Nina and normal year.

Lastly, all these results will be used for public and private sectors to take into account in short, medium and long-term water management planning to reduce risk of flooded, drought events shortly.