Where and Why Do Timorese Workers Migrate? Evidence from an Augmented Gravity Model and a South Korea Case Study
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Abstract
This study investigates the factors that influence international labor migration from Timor-Leste, with a focus on South Korea under the Employment Permit System. An extended gravity model was employed using bilateral migration data for 29 destination countries from 2000 to 2024 to assess the impact of economic size, geographic distance, trade relations, and migration policy regimes on migration flows. Migration is significantly influenced by political factors, such as formal recruitment channels and visa availability, and a positive correlation is observed between migration arrangements and bilateral exports. Furthermore, primary survey data of 250 Timor-Leste migrant workers in South Korea provide micro-level insights into employment outcomes, remittance patterns, and migration motivations. The findings confirm that sectoral recruitment driven by household economic demand and demand in the manufacturing and fishing sectors is a key driver, supported by Korea’s open institutional structure. The policy implications of this study highlight the need for stronger labor governance, better skill development, and diversification of migration routes to ensure safe and productive mobility.
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