Exploring Morbidity Cases in a Municipality in Zamboanga del Norte, Philippines: A Time Series Analysis and Forecasting Study
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Abstract
Despite governmental efforts, the Tampilisan Rural Health Unit (RHU) needs comprehensive intervention plans for diverse health challenges, prompting the municipality to prioritize the development of sustainable solutions based on historical data and forward-thinking to safeguard residents' well-being. A time series analysis of morbidity cases in Tampilisan, Zamboanga del Norte, identified prevalent illnesses, including Upper Respiratory Tract Infection, Hypertension, Urinary Tract Infection, Post Traumatic Wound Infection, and Pneumonia, ranking as the most common. Notably, morbidity cases significantly declined from January 2020 to January 2022, likely inuenced by the Covid-19 pandemic. The study employed the Prophet algorithm and fine-tuned hyperparameters during training and revealed that pneumonia had the highest R2 value (0.97) and the smallest RMSE (1.47), indicating a good fit. Conversely, the Gastritis dataset exhibited a lower R2 value (0.79) and the highest RMSE value (65.34), suggesting a weaker fit. Forecasting projected minimal uncertainty in morbidity rates for the six common illnesses, offering practical implications for local health authorities to formulate effective interventions for preventing and controlling these illnesses within the community.
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