Modeling impact of future climate on stability of slope based on general circulation model

Abstract

Slope failures are one of geo-hazard which are one of the most dangerous and occur very often. Climate is an important role in stability of slope. In many cases rainfalls induce slope instability and lead to slope failure or landslide whereas evaporation might stabilize slope. Climate change due to greenhouse effect and global warming might affect precipitation and evaporation patterns in the future and influence future slope failure. Therefore, the paper proposes a method for assessment impact of climate change on slope failure occurrences based on general circulation model (GCM). Methodology combines between climate scenarios as a result of general circulation model and modified critical antecedent precipitation index model. GCM results are downscaled with dynamical-statistical technique to derive local climate. Analysis found that trends of susceptibility of soil instability vary and depend on climate in each year period.