Performance Assessment and Failure Prediction of Corroded Cast Iron Pipes

Abstract

The increasing failure rate in deteriorating pipe and unplanned failures will increase economical loss and social impact. One of the important tasks in the asset management framework is to estimate the pipe stress of a certain pipe section subjected to operational loads and corrosion. These factors may, however, be considered uncertain not only at a given point of time, but also have substantial time variance. The probability of structural failure of pipes can be estimated using Monte Carlo type simulation conjunction with pipe stress analysis models. This paper assess the pipe performance using different pipe stress prediction models and 3-D finite element analysis. Further, the effect of corrosion was modelled and incorporated with stress prediction models to assess the pipe performance over the lifetime. Finally, the probability of failure was computed and discussed in application with a case study of buried cast iron pipe subjected to external corrosion and loadings.