Model for Forecasting the Value of Fresh or Chilled Fish Exports in Thailand

Abstract

This study aims to construct the appropriate forecasting model for the export values of fresh or chilled fish in Thailand via statistical methods. The monthly average data gathered from the Office of Agricultural Economics website from January 2011 to December 2021, 132 months, were divided into 2 datasets. The first dataset, which consisted of 120 months from January 2011 to December 2020, was used for constructing the forecasting models via the use of 7 statistical methods, namely, Box-Jenkins method, Holt’s exponential smoothing method, Brown’s exponential smoothing method, damped trend exponential smoothing method, simple seasonal exponential smoothing method, Winters’ additive exponential smoothing method, and Winters’ multiplicative exponential smoothing method. The second dataset, which consisted of 12 months from January to December 2021, was used to compare the accuracy of the forecasting model via the lowest mean absolute percentage error and root mean square error. The results indicated the most accurate method was the damped trend exponential smoothing method.