Mathematical model for forecasting number of ceramic sales

Abstract

This research utilized an action research model that aimed to develop a mathematical model for forecasting number of ceramic sales at the studied ceramic company's outlet. From the study of the problem related to company’s product sales at each outlet, it was found that the main problems were the excess amount of products producing at certain times more than the demand of the market as well as there was insufficient amount of products producing at some periods less than the demand in the market. Besides, the type of product displayed at each outlet was also one of the problems. Some outlets displayed some types of products more or less than the need of a group of customers. This imbalance of the product display led to the loss of company’s opportunity to sale and high sales revenue. Thus, this research had developed mathematical model for forecasting number of products in each ceramic outlet of the company and calculating the error occurred during the study. It was revealed that this mathematical model could forecast the product sales closed to the real one in each period, reduce production problem and assist the imbalanced product display in each outlet. There was an error on the forecast only at 3.70% when compared with the real annual product sales which was less than the expectation from company manager and elevated product sales of the company.