SARIMA Models Applications for Demand Forecasting and Supply Planning of Natural Rubber in Thailand

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Pawinee Paisri
Weerapat Sessomboon
Rojanee Homchalee


          Rubber is the important economic crops and export products of Thailand. Studying and forecasting the demand of rubber could be used as information for supply planning including production and cultivate area. Time series analysis was used to formulate the forecasting model for export volume of Concentrated Latex, RSS Grade 1, and Crepe Rubber. The appropriate forecasting time series models were  gif.latex?SARIMA(0,0,0)&space;(0,1,1)_{12}   gif.latex?SARIMA(0,1,1)&space;(1,1,0)_{12}  and gif.latex?SARIMA(0,1,1)&space;(1,1,0)_{12} , respectively.  After that historical statistics of production and stock were used to estimated rubber production and cultivate area corresponding to forecast including domestic demand and export. In the year 2022, Thailand should produce rubber about 1.573 million tons, which requiring cultivate area is about 6.561 million rai, respectively. The research results could be used to plan and set the appropriate policy for Thai rubber production. Consequently, Thailand should reduce the rubber plantation area by 12.659 million rai and then promote the planting of other economic crops. This is to achieve a balance between demand and supply.


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