Innovative Administration Planning for Electricity Consumption in Five Districts of Surin Province, Thailand, Based on Seven Electricity User Sectors

Abstract

Univariate modelling is employed in this study to forecast the electricity consumption of seven sectors under the responsibility of the Provincial Electricity Authority (PEA) Sirin Province, namely residential, small size business, medium size business, industrial, specific business, agricultural, and other sectors. The study covers a five-year period from 2022 to 2026 based on time series data and by examining and comparing the effectiveness of three forecasting methods. The three methods under study are the Holt’s linear trend, Brown’s linear trend, and Damped trend with the Mean Absolute Percentage Error used to determine the most suitable method. The comparative results reveal Brown’s linear trend to be the most suitable for forecasting electricity consumption in the residential, small size business sector, medium size business and other sectors, the Damped trend for industrial and specific business sectors, and Holt’s linear trend for the agricultural sector. Total electricity consumption from 2022 to 2026 shows a continuously increasing trend. The annual electricity distribution of the PEA Surin Province shows a continuous increase when compared to the total electricity consumption between 2022 and 2026, with the distributed volume being 2.67, 4.76, 6.47, 7.84, and 8.93 million kWh, respectively. This shows that the PEA Surin Province tends to create a surplus, although at a decreasing rate. Consequently, in the future, the PEA Surin Province may not have sufficient electricity to meet the consumption of all electricity user sectors.