System Dynamics Model for Lifetime Construction Aggregate Supply in Songkhla Lake Basin
Construction aggregate is an important material for almost all types of constructions. It is a material that is obtained from various rock sources through the mining process to various construction industries. This paper is a study of construction aggregate reserves and production capacity to forecast the quarry reserves depletion with statistic information of production capacity and the depleted of resources on the various scenario of production capacity in the Songkhla Lake Basin (SLB). By using a system dynamics model (SDM), it helps to understand and assist in the discussion and decide to manage rock supply with a situation that arises. The simulation results show the end of resource each scenario depending on production capacity; (a) the maximum production capacity scenario, which produce 1.0-2.0 MMT/y and deplete in 2104 or about 84 years later, (b) the mean production capacity scenario, which produce 0.5-1.5 MMT/y and deplete in 2123 or about 103 years later, (c) the minimum production capacity scenario, which produce 0.2-0.7 MMT/y and deplete in 2205 or about 185 years later, and finally (d) the random normal production capacity scenario, which produce 0.7-1.5 MMT/y and deplete in 2113 or about 93 years later.
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