Simultaneous Analysis of Seismicity Rate Change and Quiescence in the Thailand-Laos-Myanmar Borders: An Updated Prospective Earthquake Source
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Abstract
To investigate the precursory seismic quiescence associated with upcoming hazardous earthquakes, seismicity data collected in the vicinity of the Thailand-Laos-Myanmar borders were analyzed using the seismicity rate change (Z-value) technique and the Region-Time-Length (RTL) algorithm, which were chosen for this study based on previous successful investigations. The Thailand Meteorological Department provided the seismic data used in this study. Following that, the catalog's homogeneity and completeness were improved. Nineteen case studies of strong-to-major earthquakes were examined retrospectively, but the results of six connected occurrences using two methods were chosen. After performing iterative tests on the seismicity rate change using different values of Nw = 25 and Tw = 1.5, as well as the RTL algorithm parameters r0 = 60 km and t0 = 2.5 y, reasonable estimates of the anomalous Z-values and RTL scores a few years prior to major recognized earthquakes were obtained in both temporal variation and spatial distribution. Both the Z-value and the RTL algorithm identified almost the same potential regions for an approaching large earthquake: the northern part of Chiangmai, Thailand; the TLMB triple junction; and Mong Pan, Myanmar.
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Copyright © 2008 Department of Geology, Faculty of Science, Chulalongkorn University. Parts of an article can be photocopied or reproduced without prior written permission from the author(s), but due acknowledgments should be stated or cited accordingly.
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