Seismicity rate change along the strike-slip fault system at the Thailand-Myanmar border: Implications for upcoming earthquakes
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Abstract
In this study, both the temporal and spatial distributions of the seismicity rate changes were examined along the strike-slip fault system (SSFS) at the Thailand-Myanmar border. Based mainly on the completeness seismicity data, the relationships between the rate change anomalies and the proceeding earthquakes were checked empirically. Utilizing the obtained optimal condition of N = 25 events and Tw = 2 y, the results revealed that the lower the seismicity rate, the higher the probability of a subsequent earthquake occurrence. Hence, both spatial and temporal distributions of the rate changes were evaluated from the present-day seismicity data for 2005–2016. The maximum obtained Z value (7.3) was found in (i) 2006.43–2007.12 and 2012.64–2013.07 at northwestern Naypyidaw (96.50oE, 20.39oN) and (ii) in 2012.49 at the northeastern part of the SSFS (97.75oE, 21.89oN). This agrees well with those areas proposed previously by analysis of the frequency-magnitude distribution b-value. Therefore, effective mitigation plans should be contributed urgently, for Naypyidaw, the new capital city of Myanmar.
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Copyright © 2008 Department of Geology, Faculty of Science, Chulalongkorn University. Parts of an article can be photocopied or reproduced without prior written permission from the author(s), but due acknowledgments should be stated or cited accordingly.
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