The Prediction Model of PM2.5 in Phayao Province
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Abstract
The dust in the atmosphere (Particulate Matter with a diameter less than or equal to 2.5 micrometers; PM2.5) is the most significant air pollution in the northern region of Thailand, directly and indirectly affecting the health of the people. This pollution in Phayao province has consistently ranked in the top 3 of Thailand’s northern regions. Forecasting the concentration of PM2.5 in the atmosphere using a mathematical model is an alternative that can be employed as a guideline for planning solutions or preventing air pollution problems. Logistic regression analysis and data from the Thai Meteorological Department and Pollution Control Department were applied to this prediction model. The 5 years of data between 2015–2021 were utilized for this model and created using Python programming. The results demonstrate that the independent variables of this model are PM10, NO2, O3 and CO. The sensitivity and specificity are 0.96 and 0.72, respectively. The area under the curve (AUC) is 0.98.
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